The Journal.
No.EssayCategoryPublishedRead
09
Rugby Moneyball: Predicting Wins With Machine Learning
The same Kintetsu 2025 dataset run through logistic regression and a random forest. The model surfaced something the pairwise analysis missed, and was honestly worse than the naive baseline on accuracy. Both findings matter.
Analytics·2026·8 min
Analytics
2026
8 min
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08
Rugby Moneyball: The Metrics That Actually Predict Wins
Across 14 matches with the Kintetsu Liners in 2025, the things I had been told to coach harder weren’t the things that decided games. Discipline, turnover security, and conversion efficiency. Possession is not on the list.
Analytics·2026·8 min
Analytics
2026
8 min
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07
The Height Advantage
Sixty years of research on rugby player anthropometry, one season of Japan League One data, and the question of whether height still matters at the elite level once everyone is big enough.
Analytics·2025·12 min
Analytics
2025
12 min
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06
Using a Daily Maximum for Autoregulation
Velocity-based training, daily maximums, and a way to manage week-to-week loading without testing 1RMs that wreck your athletes.
Programming·2021·7 min
Programming
2021
7 min
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05
Improving Your Work Capacity
Why progressive overload through volume, not intensity, is the under-rated lever for hypertrophy and durability.
Programming·2021·5 min
Programming
2021
5 min
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04
Using GPS in Professional Rugby
How the Kintetsu Liners use GPS technology for daily, weekly, monthly and yearly load monitoring and performance tracking.
Analytics·2020·9 min
Analytics
2020
9 min
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03
Building Size and Strength in Rugby Union Athletes
A modified APRE block design that has produced 7 to 11 kg gains in first and second year players over nine months.
Programming·2018·4 min
Programming
2018
4 min
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02
Lower Body Profiling
Why "fill in the gaps" individualised programming beat one-size-fits-all in our preseason. 49 of 50 players ran faster.
Methods·2018·4 min
Methods
2018
4 min
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01
Is How You Feel a Lie?
A season of weekly drop-jump testing against subjective wellness scores across 50 athletes, set against the published athlete-monitoring literature. The finding I expected and the one I got were not the same.
Field Notes·2017·13 min
Field Notes
2017
13 min
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