This is the six-marker hamstring dashboard from Modelling Accumulated Load, Lag, and Soft-Tissue Injury Risk as a sandbox. Each week is scored against six yes/no markers: the 1,000–1,600 m high-speed band, three-plus weeks above the player’s own baseline, six-week accumulated excess, flat week-to-week variation, prior strain, and recent sprint exposure. The count is what matters — on two seasons of squad data, four or more lights marked a roughly five-fold step in 14-day injury rate.
Enter your own numbers, or load the presets: Player A ships with the real season from the essay — the deload week that didn’t save him — and Player B with the flat block that quietly scores four lights on pattern alone. The job is the same as the essay’s: shape the planned weeks until nobody reaches four.
| marker | -8 | -7 | -6 | -5 | -4 | -3 | -2 | -1 | p1 | p2 | p3 | p4 |
| band | ||||||||||||
| streak | ||||||||||||
| excess | ||||||||||||
| variation | ||||||||||||
| history | ||||||||||||
| sprint | ||||||||||||
| count | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| marker | -8 | -7 | -6 | -5 | -4 | -3 | -2 | -1 | p1 | p2 | p3 | p4 |
| band | ||||||||||||
| streak | ||||||||||||
| excess | ||||||||||||
| variation | ||||||||||||
| history | ||||||||||||
| sprint | ||||||||||||
| count | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
The band, streak and six-week excess markers use the pre-registered definitions exactly; the variation marker is approximated from the visible weeks, and weeks before the window are assumed at baseline. Rates are observed two-season calibration from one professional rugby squad (26,013 player-days, 17 hamstring injuries), so treat them as ordering, not prophecy — the thresholds will travel imperfectly to your squad. A staff tool: risk numbers shown to players become their own kind of load.